Almost immediately afterward, reports surfaced that he had been betrayed by his former comrade Ratko Mladic, the wartime commander of the Bosnian Serb Army who is still in hiding, accused of war crimes. On 24 July, the London Telegraph reported:
Mladic... allegedly passed on the information in a bargain with investigators to
delay his capture and avoid trial at the International Criminal Tribunal for the
Former Yugoslavia at the Hague...
A source close to the German foreign intelligence service, the BND, said that Mladic has been negotiating with those hunting him over the terms of his capture, and “gave information on [on Karadzic’s whereabouts] to save himself”.
(I also heard a similar report on television--I believe it was CNN, in fact.)
I personally find this story doubtful, though. It doesn't make much sense, plus there's a better potential explanation for why Western intelligence agencies would wish to publicize such an account of Karadzic's capture.
First of all, how likely is it that the story about Mladic ratting on Karadzic is actually true? In order to believe this, we would have to assume at least three things:
1.) Mladic actually knew the whereabouts of Karadzic
2.) Mladic would risk capture by contacting the people hunting him, hoping for a better trial venue (namely, one inside Serbia)
3.) Mladic would be inclined to believe that handing over his wartime leader would actually secure him a guarantee against a trial at the Hague
All of these are dubious propositions.
First of all, it does not seem likely that he would have known the whereabouts of Karadzic. It is unlikely that Karadzic himself would have told him, since that would have made it possible for Mladic to betray him. And why would any Serb agency hiding Mladic have told him? It wouldn't have been necessary for him to know where Karadzic was, and it might have increased the chances of Mladic embarassing them, by either purposely or accidentally blowing Karadzic's cover. They certainly wouldn't have wanted that!
Secondly, why would Mladic have risked blowing his own cover by contacting authorities who were after him? (The article did not specify which authorities he was supposed to have contacted; I will assume it was referring to some authority other than those of the Serbian Government--the BND, perhaps?) That would be the absolute last thing a fugitive from justice would do! If he wanted to turn himself in first, then negotiate, I might be able to understand that. But send out signals to potential captors? Highly unlikely.
And thirdly, how likely is it that such a bargain would actually work? I have no doubt that Mladic would prefer a trial inside Serbia, but why would the Hague budge on this point? They've waited over 10 years for Karadzic's capture, just so that he could be tried before the Hague. They had every opportunity to approach Serbia with a compromise until now, yet it seems they never did. They could have included both Karadzic and Mladic in the deal, and that would probably have been acceptable to the Serbian government. But the chances of a partial acquittal and/or more lenient sentences would also have been greater, which is why I'm sure they never did pursue such a deal with Serbia. Why would Mladic have believed them to be amenable to such a deal, after all these years of patient (and up till now, fruitless) waiting?
No, I don't believe any of the conditions were true. The more likely motive for Western intelligence agencies to spread such a story is psy-ops: psychological operations, which is the attempt by a military or an intelligence entity to influence the beliefs of a target group in the service of a tactical goal.
Simply put, I'm sure this is an attempt to smear Mladic, tarring him as a selfish traitor, by implying that he would turn on his former superior (who is still quite popular among Serbs) in order to save himself. Those most likely to know his whereabouts, afterall, would probably be Serb nationalists themselves, who also revere Karadzic. If it is the Serb Government that is protecting him, this might also give them a bit of political cover, by helping to dampen--and perhaps deflect--the anger of the nationalists if and when the government eventually does hand Mladic over.
The psy-ops theory also answers another puzzling question: why would an intelligence service see fit to reveal such a thing to the public? If it doesn't benefit them to know, afterall, it certainly doesn't benefit us to know!
They had better hope, however, that Mladic is apprehended soon; if not, they will begin to look incompetent.
